Beta · Honest probabilities, not hype

Where might you actually get in?

Tell us your numbers. We score you against each school's published admit profile, factor in international applicant adjustments, and sort 30+ universities into reach / target / likely / safety. We don't fake precision — we'd rather be honestly approximate.

International applicants face ~30-50% lower admit rates at top US privates. We adjust scores accordingly.

3.7 / 4.0
2.03.03.54.0

Most top US universities reinstated SAT/ACT for 2025-26. Skipping the test is treated neutrally for test-optional schools.

TOEFL iBT 100

Solid: regional awards, multi-year leadership, varsity sport. Honest self-assessment matters more than inflation.

Your shortlist split
0 reach · 0 target · 0 likely · 0 safety

A balanced shortlist is roughly 3 reach + 5 target + 3 likely + 2 safety = 13 schools. Adjust your inputs and watch the buckets rebalance.

How honest is this? We use each school's published admit profile (acceptance rate, GPA/SAT median where available) and adjust for international status and your extracurricular strength. We don't claim precise percentages — that's why we show buckets, not "67.3% chance".
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How we score it (honestly)

Our score for each school is a weighted blend of three signals. We do not use a black-box ML model — every adjustment is published below so you can sanity-check it.

  • Base admit rate — the school's published acceptance rate is the gravity well. A 4% admit school is a reach for almost everyone, no matter how strong; a 70% school is a likely for most qualified applicants.
  • Profile fit — when we have GPA / SAT median data, we score how close you are to the typical admit. A 1500 SAT at MIT (median 1543) is a fit; at a state flagship with median 1280 it's well above.
  • International adjustment — top US privates admit international students at 30-50% of their headline rate. We multiply your base score by 0.6-0.8 for international applicants, depending on the school's international share.
  • Holistic lift — extracurriculars, recommendations and essays move the needle on US private + UK Oxbridge applications. We add up to +20% for "Elite" profiles, but cap improvements: a Common App and a couple of awards won't turn a reach into a safety.

Buckets, not percentages

We sort schools into Reach (<20%), Target (20-50%), Likely (50-75%) and Safety (>75%). Inside each bucket the order is approximate — admissions are inherently noisy and we'd rather not pretend "MIT 5.2%" is somehow more accurate than "Harvard 4.8%".

What's missing

  • We don't yet score by major (CS at MIT vs. Linguistics at MIT — very different odds).
  • Demonstrated interest, alumni connections, athletic recruitment — not modeled.
  • UK / Oxbridge interview performance — heavily weighted by them, hard to estimate ahead.
  • Asia-Pacific competitive pools — we use the school's overall rate, which under-prices competition for highly-prepared cohorts.

Treat this as a sanity check on your shortlist, not a verdict. Pair it with the Cost Calculator to make sure your reach schools are also financially feasible.